Analysis · Germany
Faced with rising diesel prices and decreasing payments for surplus power from its 1MWp onsite solar project, can a German logistics warehouse cut its energy costs by using more of its rooftop solar on site? And which options make the most sense financially, given high upfront Capex requirements?
The warehouse is modeled on a real logistics site in North Rhine-Westphalia. The analysis compares six ways to increase the site's self-consumption, and ranks them in terms of the total contribution they make, their upfront cost, as well as the cost savings they unlock elsewhere (e.g. for switching from diesel trucks to electric models).
The warehouse currently uses only 29% of what its roof produces and exports the rest. It pays about 18.7 cents per kWh for grid power but earns about 4.3 cents per kWh it exports, which leaves up to €100k a year on the table.
Electrifying the truck fleet emerges as the option with the best business case: however, switching to electric trucks represents a major capital investment in its own right, and should not be made simply to increase solar self-consumption.
Two factors make the switch to electric trucks particularly attractive:
First, diesel for the eight trucks costs about €252k a year, almost six times the power bill. Charging electric trucks from the roof using daytime power output from the solar array cuts that energy cost by about 77%, and lifts self-consumption from 29% to 50%. It also shields the truck fleet from swings in diesel price, and future fuel price inflation.
Second, Germany has exempted electric trucks from road tolls until mid-2031, providing an additional incentive to make the switch. This represents an annual saving of about €35k per truck on tolls alone for a truck that drives 100,000 km per year on toll roads. In order to be conservative, this analysis assumes the trucks in this case drive about 51,000 km a year (versus the 2025 average of 67,500 km for German tractor units), which saves €9–15k per truck, or €71–121k for the fleet of eight trucks.
The investment of about €2.6 million for eight trucks and four chargers comes to about €2.24 million once the existing five-year-old diesel trucks are sold for about €0.36 million. In our central scenario that pays back in about 9 years: €294k a year for the 4.5 toll-free years from early 2027 to mid-2031 (€194k on energy plus €100k on tolls, with 70% of the mileage on toll roads), then €194k a year. Across the ranges for truck and charger prices and the share of mileage on toll roads, the payback runs from 7.6 to 10.6 years.
A battery is a useful extra rather than part of the core case: a 0.5 MWh unit (€195–338k) would lift self-consumption from 50% to 64% and save about €20k a year more, and could also help cut the site’s peak demand. Sizing a battery and deciding how to run it needs its own analysis.
There are several upsides to making the switch: the facility’s fleet no longer relies on diesel, the trucks are spared from having to pay costly road tolls (at least until 2031), and a greater share of the facility’s onsite solar output can be put to use, rather than exported to the grid.
To take the next step, the facility has two routes: a bank loan, with the proceeds from the old trucks as equity, or a lease, where a leasing company owns the trucks and the facility pays a monthly rate with little or no cash upfront. If structured well, this project has an attractive payback and leaves the facility with lower operating costs, fewer fees, a smaller environmental footprint, and greater resilience in the face of future energy shocks.
Table 1. Why self-consumption beats exporting power to the grid for a roof connected after February 2025
Driver
Figure
Source
Hours with negative day-ahead prices, 2025
578 hours, 95% of them in daylight hours
Average value of solar output vs average market prices across all hours, 2025
€50 vs €89 per MWh
Payment in negative quarter-hours, plants ≥100 kW from 25 Feb 2025
None; lost time is added at the end of the support period at half weight
This roof’s exports at 2025 market prices
4.3 ct/kWh, nothing in negative-price hours
Model, (1)
Grid power for a logistics firm, 2026
About 18.7 ct/kWh before VAT: the industry average of 16.7 ct plus the full electricity tax that non-manufacturers pay
Grid connection requests waiting nationwide, for generation, storage and large consumers
More than 700 GW, many of them speculative
Unpaid curtailment in congested areas (draft, July 2026)
Up to 20% of output
New systems above 100 kW (EEG 2027 draft)
Two-way contracts that require system owners to pay revenue back when prices are high
Table 2. Key project parameters
Value
Floor area
23,700 m²
Roof output
974 MWh a year (974 kWh/kWp)
Warehouse demand
512 MWh a year
Self-consumed
282 MWh, 28.9% of output
Exported
692 MWh a year
Average day: output / exported
2.7 / 1.9 MWh
June day: output / self-consumed
4.8 / 1.0 MWh
December day: output / self-consumed
0.8 / 0.5 MWh
Power bill: 230 MWh from the grid, all charges and taxes, before VAT
About €43k a year
Power bill without the roof
About €96k a year
Figure 1. The facility's output on an average summer day vs an average winter day differs widely
kW, average half-hour
June working day
December working day
Table 3. Summary of the main options
Option
Extra self-consumption, MWh/yr
Upfront cost (Capex)
Value of self-consumption,
in €/year + fuel savings
Factors that influence actual usage
8 e-trucks, charging spread 13:00–17:00
205
€2.4–2.7m, 8 trucks + four shared chargers
€30k + €164k diesel
Shift pattern; actual charging time and duration
Battery, 0.5 MWh
126
€195–338k
€18k
Evening and nighttime demand
Battery, 1 MWh
151
€250–500k
€22k
Evening and nighttime demand
Staff e-cars, all drivers electric
77–130
€187–975k
€11–19k
Headcount; shifts; EV uptake
Heat pump with slab heating
106
€901k–2.4m
€15k + c. €41k gas
Only feasible in a new build
Heat pump with 50 m³ tank
60
€362k–1.3m
€9k + c. €41k gas
Water-based heating
Shift 10–30% of the warehouse’s grid-supplied load
20–57
Hard to price; depends on site
€3–8k
Analysing which loads can move, and when
Heat pump alone
35
€295k–1.2m
€5k + c. €41k gas
Heat demand; replaces gas
Value: extra self-consumption × 14.4 ct/kWh, the grid price avoided (18.7 ct) minus the export price given up (4.3 ct). Diesel: fuel cost avoided minus the trucks’ power at the grid price (Table 4). Gas: rough estimate, 1,066 MWh of heat from a 90% efficient boiler at 8.6 ct/kWh, minus the heat pump’s power at the grid price; each 1 ct/kWh increase in natural gas prices increases the facility's annual gas bill by about €12k (37).
Figure 2. Extra self-consumption against upfront cost, by option
Source: E3Applied model; costs as in Table 3, drawn at the middle of each range. Circle areas are relative to the largest option on each measure: 205 MWh a year and €2.6m, both electric trucks. Where the orange cost circle is the larger one, the option costs more, relative to the others, than the solar it puts to use. Truck costs are the full price of eight electric trucks plus four shared chargers (€65–86k each); the trucks pay for themselves mainly through diesel and toll savings (Table 4). Load shifting is not priced, as its cost depends on the site.
Figure 3. Extra self-consumption, by option
Extra self-consumption, MWh a year
Source: E3Applied model. Each option is run on its own; the results are not additive, because every option draws on the same midday surplus.
Table 4. What switching eight trucks to electric saves in a year
Amount
Per year
Diesel no longer bought, 30 l/100 km at €2.05/l before VAT
123,000 l
+€252k
Power for the e-trucks, charged 13:00–17:00
467 MWh, 44% from the roof
−€58k
Energy saving
Diesel minus power
€194k
Tolls no longer paid, 8 trucks at 34.8 ct/km, until 30 June 2031
205,000–348,500 km on toll roads
+€71–121k
Total saving until mid-2031
Energy saving plus tolls
€265–315k
Source: E3Applied model; diesel (15, 34); toll (36, 38, 40). Roof power valued at the 4.3 ct/kWh it would have earned as export. The energy saving includes about €30k from using roof power instead of exporting it. All from the grid, the trucks’ power would cost €87k; charging 13:00–17:00 takes 44% of it from the roof. Toll: 34.8 ct/km is the rate for a 40-tonne, five-axle Euro VI diesel truck, or €34,800 a year for a truck that drives 100,000 km on toll roads (38). Each truck in this case drives about 51,250 km a year, a conservative figure: the average German tractor unit drove 67,500 km in 2025 (39). We assume 50–85% of it runs on toll roads; German trucks over 18 t with five or more axles drive close to 90% of their mileage on toll roads, mostly long-haul (40). Excludes maintenance and capacity charges. Capacity charges are highly location-specific: each distribution grid operator sets its own prices, has its own connection queue and offers different options for a larger connection, so they need to be checked with the local operator. Spreading the truck charging over the afternoon keeps the site’s new peak near 565 kW instead of about 1,300 kW, which keeps these charges and the connection upgrade smaller.
Method and assumptions
The model compares roof output and warehouse demand for each half-hour of 2025. Self-consumption is the smaller of the two in each half-hour, plus what a battery or heat store delivers later; stores charge only from surplus and follow no price signal. The model does not calculate support payments. The simple payback in the conclusion sets the upfront cost of the trucks and four shared chargers, minus what the existing five-year-old diesel trucks sell for (35% of the €130k new price, about €0.36 million for eight), against the annual savings. The central scenario takes the middle e-truck price (€282.5k), the top charger price (€344k) and 70% of the mileage on toll roads: €2.24 million, repaid at €294k a year for the first 4.5 years and €194k a year after mid-2031, which takes 9.2 years. The range of 7.6–10.6 years puts truck prices, charger prices and the toll-road share (50–85%) at their favourable or unfavourable ends at once. It leaves out the battery, interest, capacity charges and the book value of the old trucks. Capacity charges are highly location-specific: each distribution grid operator sets its own prices, has its own connection queue and offers different options for a larger connection, so they need to be checked with the local operator. Values in € a year use 18.7 ct/kWh for grid power and 4.3 ct/kWh for exports.
Table 5. Main assumptions
Input
Value
Source
Warehouse
23,700 m², 21.6 kWh/m² a year
Roof
1,000 kWp, east-west at 10°, 14% losses
Battery
2-hour, 90% usable, about 90% round trip; €250–500/kWh installed from 1 MWh, €390–675/kWh below
Trucks
205 km a day at 1.14 kWh/km, about 51,000 km a year (conservative: the 2025 average for German tractor units was 67,500 km), 150 kW points; +€125–180k per truck; chargers €432–574/kW (€65–86k per 150 kW point; four shared points)
Diesel
30 l/100 km; €2.05/l before VAT (€2.44 with VAT, 28 Sep 2026)
Heat
45 kWh/m² useful heat (30–65); seasonal COP 3.25; 0.6–1.2 MW at €500–1,040/kW
Heat stores
Tank 0.58 MWh, €66.5–105k; slab about 4.7 MWh over 2 K, €30–60/m²
Staff
170–300 people; 65% drive; 4.1–100% EV; 30 km a day at 0.18 kWh/km; two shifts
(8, 29, 30, 31); our assumptions
Charging points
€1,700–5,000 per point
Load shifting
10–30% of daily grid-supplied demand moved into the same day’s solar hours
Our assumption
Export value
2025 day-ahead price, nothing in negative-price hours; sensitivity with EEG market premium at 5.90 ct/kWh
Gas
1,066 MWh of heat from a 90% efficient boiler, about 1,185 MWh of gas; 8.6 ct/kWh before VAT, non-household band I2, second half of 2025
(37); boiler efficiency our assumption
Truck toll
Diesel 34.8 ct/km (over 18 t, 5 axles, Euro VI); 50–85% of each truck’s km on toll roads; electric trucks exempt until 30 June 2031, in service from early 2027
(36, 38, 40); share of km and start date our assumptions

