Nigeria
The question: does solar+storage pay off for a mid-sized hotel in Nigeria, and does the city matter?
A 140 kWp solar array with a 93 kW / 280 kWh battery pays back in about 4 years from the investment decision, including a one-year build.
It cuts the hotel’s energy cost to $2,600–3,100 a month, including operation and maintenance: a saving of $3,500–4,000 a month.
Diesel spend falls by 86–89%, because solar and storage cover most outage hours.
The city matters slightly: Kano’s stronger sun saves 9% more a year than Lagos, and Port Harcourt 3% less.
Outages are not a prerequisite for success. On a grid that never failed, the same system would still pay back in about 5–5.5 years.
Hours a year of unplanned grid outage reported by businesses (1)
Hours of supply a day guaranteed, depending on the tariff band (3)
Feeder failures a year in south-western Nigeria (4)
Annual average, measured across hotel facilities in Kebbi State, Nigeria (11). HVAC covers air conditioning and ventilation; plug loads are guest-room and back-of-house equipment. Data for illustrative purposes only; the modelled load profile is described under Figure 2.
Averaged across twelve monthly profiles. Demand peaks at 81 kW after breakfast service and the air-conditioning ramp-up. Solar output rises after the morning peak and falls away before the early evening. The battery (not shown) is held in reserve and covers the hotel during grid outages. Solar output includes system losses. The hotel load profile is synthetic: adapted to Nigerian conditions from the measured load curve of a comparable hotel in a similar tropical climate (source confidential). One typical day per month, hourly resolution.
| City | Payback, years (incl. build year) | Monthly cost with system | Monthly saving | Diesel spend cut | Annual saving vs Lagos | NPV @ 26.5% | IRR (nominal) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lagos | 3.94 | $2,982 | $3,633 | 86% | base | $101,073 | 42.9% |
| Abuja | 3.82 | $2,825 | $3,790 | 87% | +4.1% | $110,669 | 44.3% |
| Kano | 3.68 | $2,626 | $3,989 | 89% | +9.2% | $122,802 | 46.2% |
| Port Harcourt | 4.02 | $3,091 | $3,524 | 86% | −2.8% | $94,574 | 41.9% |
Energy cost today is $6,615 a month in every city: same hotel, same tariff, same outage exposure. Payback counts from the investment decision and includes the one-year build. Monthly cost with the system includes operation and maintenance ($2,835 a year, 2.5% of capex). NPV is discounted at the CBN policy rate of 26.5% over 25 years, with the system paid upfront. IRR is nominal; after 15% inflation it is 23–27% in real terms.
Monthly energy cost, US$ (with system: grid, remaining diesel and O&M)
Identical hardware (140 kWp of solar, a 93 kW / 280 kWh battery, $113,400 of capex) on the same load curve, the same Band A tariff and the same 1,860 hours of grid outage. Only the solar resource changes. The monthly bars are running costs: grid electricity plus diesel, with operation and maintenance added on the solar+storage side. What the hotel spends today is the same in all four cities because the tariff, the load and the outage exposure are; only what replaces it moves.
Simple payback time (years, including one-year build)
Payback counts from the investment decision and includes the one-year build, so each city recovers its outlay 2.7–3.0 years after the system is switched on. The modelled battery rules spill more solar at sunnier sites (53,298 kWh a year in Kano against 23,987 in Lagos), so the gaps between cities are, if anything, understated.
Model input assumptions
| Category | Input | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| System | Solar array | 140 kWp (DC) | Design under test |
| System | Battery | 93 kW / 280 kWh (3 h) | Design under test |
| System | Total capex | $113,400 | Derived from unit costs |
| Cost | Solar capex | $450/kWp | E3Applied estimate from Nigerian market experience, 2026 |
| Cost | Battery capex | $180/kWh | E3Applied estimate from Nigerian market experience, 2026 |
| Cost | Operating cost | 2.5% of capex a year | Working figure |
| Cost | Battery replacement | 30% of battery capex at 80% capacity | Falls in operating years 8, 15 and 22 |
| Tariff | Band A energy rate | NGN 209.50/kWh (USD 0.153) | NERC allowed tariff, MD1/MD2, Sep 2026 |
| Tariff | Time of use | Flat | Nigerian DisCo tariffs carry no peak or off-peak split |
| Diesel | Diesel generation cost | $0.46/kWh (fuel only) | Depot price about NGN 1,900/L (USD 1.39), Sep 2026, at 3 kWh/L |
| Diesel | Emission factor | 2.68 kg CO₂/L | Diesel combustion, standard factor |
| Grid | Outage exposure | 1,860 h/yr (21.2% of hours) | 4 h/day outside Band A guaranteed supply, plus about 400 h/yr unplanned (World Bank Enterprise Surveys). Same in all four cities |
| Macro | General inflation | 15% | NERC MYTO index, Sep 2026 (15.4–15.9%) |
| Macro | Discount rate | 26.5% | CBN Monetary Policy Rate, July 2026; used for NPV only |
| Macro | Exchange rate | NGN 1,369/USD | NERC MYTO Sep 2026 (AEDC) |
| Macro | Corporate tax | 30% | Nigeria companies income tax, standard rate |
| Technical | System loss | 20% | Blended inverter, cabling, mismatch and soiling |
| Technical | Battery degradation | 3.3%/yr | Uncooled battery in a hot climate |
| Technical | Solar resource | PVGIS SARAH2, 2015–2020 | Per-city hourly irradiation averages |
| Technical | Hotel load curve | 380 MWh/yr, 83 kW peak month | Synthetic profile adapted from a comparable hotel's measured load curve (source confidential); one typical day per month, hourly |
| Technical | End-use split | HVAC 58%, plug 18%, water 18%, lighting 6% | Musa & Batagarawa (2024), hotel facilities in Kebbi State; illustrative, the model runs on the total load curve |
| Finance | Financing | Paid upfront, no loan | Naira lending above 25% makes loans unattractive |
| Finance | Time to commissioning | 1 year | 9–12 months for a C&I system; savings start in year two |


